Track record

Claim: A Grok-built Polymarket bot ("mo-money") made $508K+ in 125 days, starting from $68, with $6,732 on the first night and about $258 per trade.

What the public data shows:

• The account exists and the size of the profit is real: all-time P&L about $521.8K, but that includes about $65.8K of fee rebates and rewards ($51,375 maker rebates, $9,667 taker rebates, $4,745 rewards). Trading profit alone: $455.7K realized.
• First day was a loss (−$116 realized), not +$6,732. The account's first-ever trade (2026-02-04) was $98.60, so a $68 start cannot be confirmed.
• Average trade size is about $42 ($26.58M volume / 636,582 fills), not $258.
• The three example wins are real, but they are the account's top 3. Losses of similar size exist (e.g. −$2,685 on 21 Jul).
• Profit is shrinking: realized Jul +$141K, Aug +$131K, Sep +$94K, Oct 1–22 +$56K. No public link to Grok or to the poster.

Claim: Slept 9 hours while Grok copy-traded through the "Dawn" bot: $170 → $2,154.

What the public data shows:

• The post ends with a referral link for the bot. It shows 223,772 impressions but only 8 likes; the same account's other posts that day had 176–1,717 impressions, a pattern consistent with paid promotion (we could not confirm an "Ad" label).
• Per its own docs, Dawn is a meme-coin trading bot (Solana and other chains). It does not trade on Polymarket. It charges 1% per buy and per sell, minimum $0.35.
• The video shows a different copy-trading product, not Dawn, and no wallet address, so nothing can be checked on-chain.
• The numbers contradict each other: "97 trades, 37 losses" (61.9% wins) vs. "88 winning trades, 70%".
• The 8 traders' "copied" profits add up to exactly $1,984.00 and are exactly 22/17/15/13/11/9/8/5% of it: generated figures, not real fills.

Claim: A student's bot "Gravia" turned $0.90 into $408K in 48 hours; the poster copy-traded it for 14 days and made $32,400.

What the public data shows:

• The Polymarket account "Gravia" has 0 trades, $0 position value and no leaderboard entry. No related account comes anywhere near $408K (the closest, "Gravia-Trading-Terminal", traded 4 markets for $322.68 in volume).
• The video is labelled "SIMULATED" and shows a 100.0% win rate throughout.
• The story is recycled: the same "$0.90 → $408,292, Gravia" claim appears in a post from 15 May 2026, and the "$32,400 in 14 days" line copies a 9 Jul 2026 post word for word.
• It uses the same referral code as the Dawn post above.
• $0.90 → $408K is a 453,658× gain: about 1,635 consecutive +0.8% trades. Polymarket's taker fee on crypto markets is about 1.75% near 50¢, larger than the 0.3–0.8% edge the post claims per trade.

Claim: Gave "Grok Bot" $50 and told it to earn its own subscription: $5,273 after 48 hours on Polymarket, using an 8% edge threshold, Kelly sizing capped at 6% per bet, and weather markets.

What the public data shows:

• The video's final balance is $4,935.18, not $5,273, and its footer is dated 22–24 Aug 2026, two months before the post.
• No username or wallet appears in the video. We found no matching Polymarket account, and the markets named in the log (e.g. "NYC rain > 2in Aug 28") did not turn up in Polymarket's public search.
• Between the 42-hour and 47.8-hour frames the balance jumps from $1,809 to $4,935 in 30 trades, an average gain of about 98% of the amount staked per trade. That does not fit the stated 13.5% average edge and 6% maximum bet.
• With the video's own parameters (227 trades, 13.5% edge, ≤6% per bet) the expected growth is at most about 6.3×, not 105×.
• The account's other recent posts are mostly giveaway and engagement prompts.