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策略研究2026-10-21 · 文件更新于 2026-10-21 15:41(UTC+8)
这是团队内部研究日志的原文,用于纸面(虚拟资金)实验。文中的方向判断和「预案」只针对模拟账户,不是投资建议或交易信号。内部文件路径和个人信息已隐去。

数据:15m=2023-10-22~2026-10-21T07:00 UTC(105119 根,HTX 永续价格),4h=2021-05-01~2026-10-21T00:00 UTC(11995 根)。前半/后半按样本中点切分(15m 中点 2025-04-21,4h 中点 2024-01-25),按平仓时间归属。

组 策略 周期 笔数 胜率% 收益% 最大回撤% PF 前半$ 后半$ 成本翻倍收益% 备注
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) donchian 15m 31 32.3 -0.69 2.25 0.82 -0.48 -0.21 -2.17
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) ema 15m 271 22.5 -10.07 10.14 0.60 -10.07 +0.00 -9.98 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过38516次,末笔2024-09-01)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) bollinger 15m 221 13.1 -10.01 10.06 0.07 -10.01 +0.00 -10.03 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过2952次,末笔2024-02-23)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) rsi 15m 171 41.5 -10.04 10.18 0.28 -10.04 +0.00 -10.07 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过983次,末笔2024-08-07)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) keltner 15m 262 23.3 -10.01 10.02 0.48 -10.01 +0.00 -10.03 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过4810次,末笔2024-06-26)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) pullback 15m 199 11.6 -10.02 10.02 0.25 -10.02 +0.00 -10.08 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过6197次,末笔2024-02-22)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) local_mix 15m 186 3.8 -10.04 10.05 0.03 -10.04 +0.00 -10.01 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过13861次,末笔2023-11-13)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_long 15m 31 32.3 -0.69 2.25 0.82 -0.48 -0.21 -2.17
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_short 15m 59 35.6 -3.89 4.08 0.53 -3.08 -0.81 -6.33 空单59笔-3.89$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_both 15m 90 34.4 -4.56 5.76 0.62 -3.54 -1.01 -8.37 空单59笔-3.89$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_long 15m 271 22.5 -10.07 10.14 0.60 -10.07 +0.00 -9.98 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过38516次,末笔2024-09-01)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_short 15m 174 19.5 -9.97 10.06 0.41 -9.97 +0.00 -10.06 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过41430次,末笔2024-05-17);空单174笔-9.97$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_both 15m 212 20.3 -9.93 10.00 0.46 -9.93 +0.00 -10.06 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过93405次,末笔2024-02-21);空单103笔-7.16$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_long 15m 221 13.1 -10.01 10.06 0.07 -10.01 +0.00 -10.03 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过2952次,末笔2024-02-23)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_short 15m 176 11.4 -10.03 10.12 0.06 -10.03 +0.00 -10.03 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过2918次,末笔2024-01-26);空单176笔-10.03$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_both 15m 204 13.2 -10.00 10.06 0.07 -10.00 +0.00 -10.09 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过6189次,末笔2023-12-17);空单106笔-5.67$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_long 15m 171 41.5 -10.04 10.18 0.28 -10.04 +0.00 -10.07 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过983次,末笔2024-08-07)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_short 15m 132 36.4 -10.33 10.43 0.19 -10.33 +0.00 -10.19 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过1095次,末笔2024-05-21);空单132笔-10.33$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_both 15m 153 39.2 -10.15 10.30 0.18 -10.15 +0.00 -9.99 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过2395次,末笔2024-03-05);空单86笔-7.94$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_long 15m 262 23.3 -10.01 10.02 0.48 -10.01 +0.00 -10.03 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过4810次,末笔2024-06-26)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_short 15m 149 10.1 -9.92 10.01 0.16 -9.92 +0.00 -10.05 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过5546次,末笔2024-03-14);空单149笔-9.92$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_both 15m 197 17.3 -9.94 10.03 0.32 -9.94 +0.00 -10.04 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过11534次,末笔2024-01-20);空单98笔-6.43$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_long 15m 199 11.6 -10.02 10.02 0.25 -10.02 +0.00 -10.08 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过6197次,末笔2024-02-22)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_short 15m 158 6.3 -10.02 10.02 0.12 -10.02 +0.00 -10.04 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过5781次,末笔2024-03-09);空单158笔-10.02$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_both 15m 177 9.0 -10.05 10.05 0.16 -10.05 +0.00 -10.04 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过12742次,末笔2023-12-20);空单74笔-4.86$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_long 15m 186 3.8 -10.04 10.05 0.03 -10.04 +0.00 -10.01 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过13861次,末笔2023-11-13)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_short 15m 177 4.0 -10.01 10.05 0.02 -10.01 +0.00 -10.07 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过12776次,末笔2023-11-25);空单177笔-10.01$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_both 15m 179 3.4 -9.99 10.03 0.01 -9.99 +0.00 -10.07 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过26233次,末笔2023-11-07);空单63笔-3.79$,资金费UNKNOWN
EMA_FILTERED_200(27/73) fast15 15m 255 26.3 -10.02 10.10 0.62 -10.02 +0.00 -10.00 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过242次,末笔2025-04-21)
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) default4h 15m 31 32.3 -0.69 2.25 0.82 -0.48 -0.21 -2.17
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) audited4h 15m 7 28.6 +0.09 1.11 1.10 +0.68 -0.59 -0.26 样本不足
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel24 15m 12 41.7 +1.22 0.72 2.05 +0.89 +0.33 +0.51 样本不足
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel34 15m 11 45.5 +1.24 0.72 2.08 +0.91 +0.33 +0.58 样本不足
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) exit14 15m 11 45.5 +1.14 0.78 1.92 +0.88 +0.26 +0.49 样本不足
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel48 15m 7 28.6 +0.26 1.12 1.26 +0.86 -0.59 -0.11 样本不足
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) donchian 240m 70 32.9 +3.84 4.50 1.21 -3.14 +6.98 -0.20
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) ema 240m 144 23.6 +3.97 8.59 1.09 +2.10 +1.87 -6.25
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) bollinger 240m 201 55.7 -9.90 10.11 0.71 -5.81 -4.09 -9.95 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过112次,末笔2025-01-09)
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) rsi 240m 138 50.7 -4.59 5.59 0.86 -1.24 -3.35 -10.05
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) keltner 240m 114 36.0 +7.94 3.92 1.37 +3.21 +4.73 +1.29
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) pullback 240m 140 22.1 +2.16 7.85 1.07 -2.91 +5.07 -4.84
strategy_pool_v1(只做多) local_mix 240m 295 35.6 -10.10 10.13 0.59 -10.10 +0.00 -10.06 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过1214次,末笔2023-03-02)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_long 240m 70 32.9 +3.84 4.50 1.21 -3.14 +6.98 -0.20
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_short 240m 79 40.5 -1.36 4.66 0.93 +1.59 -2.95 -6.40 空单79笔-1.36$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) donchian_both 240m 143 36.4 +2.48 8.43 1.07 -1.44 +3.92 -6.30 空单76笔-1.82$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_long 240m 144 23.6 +3.97 8.59 1.09 +2.10 +1.87 -6.25
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_short 240m 89 22.5 -6.83 10.12 0.71 -3.89 -2.94 -7.75 空单89笔-6.83$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) ema_both 240m 194 20.6 -5.79 10.21 0.89 -3.29 -2.50 -6.78 空单95笔-8.70$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_long 240m 201 55.7 -9.90 10.11 0.71 -5.81 -4.09 -9.95 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过112次,末笔2025-01-09)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_short 240m 135 50.4 -9.42 10.14 0.63 -9.42 +0.00 -9.47 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过202次,末笔2023-12-02);空单135笔-9.42$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) bollinger_both 240m 141 50.4 -9.08 10.00 0.72 -9.08 +0.00 -9.67 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过535次,末笔2022-08-20);空单67笔-3.89$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_long 240m 138 50.7 -4.59 5.59 0.86 -1.24 -3.35 -10.05
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_short 240m 80 45.0 -10.20 10.20 0.50 -5.67 -4.53 -10.02 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过77次,末笔2024-09-23);空单80笔-10.20$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) rsi_both 240m 139 48.2 -10.08 10.11 0.70 -6.84 -3.24 -10.32 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过177次,末笔2024-03-04);空单73笔-9.03$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_long 240m 114 36.0 +7.94 3.92 1.37 +3.21 +4.73 +1.29
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_short 240m 113 37.2 +2.28 4.97 1.10 +1.94 +0.33 -4.71 空单113笔+2.28$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) keltner_both 240m 227 36.6 +10.19 4.37 1.22 +5.22 +4.97 -3.65 空单113笔+2.04$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_long 240m 140 22.1 +2.16 7.85 1.07 -2.91 +5.07 -4.84
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_short 240m 89 15.7 -7.12 10.07 0.64 -4.57 -2.55 -7.79 空单89笔-7.12$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) pullback_both 240m 108 19.4 -4.18 10.05 0.84 -4.18 +0.00 -5.30 空单59笔-2.11$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_long 240m 295 35.6 -10.10 10.13 0.59 -10.10 +0.00 -10.06 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过1214次,末笔2023-03-02)
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_short 240m 244 42.6 -10.00 10.00 0.61 -10.00 +0.00 -10.09 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过1262次,末笔2022-08-24);空单244笔-10.00$,资金费UNKNOWN
directional_v1(价格路径,资金费UNKNOWN) local_mix_both 240m 240 38.8 -10.06 10.09 0.58 -10.06 +0.00 -10.36 回撤≥10%后低于5U最小下单额停摆(跳过2911次,末笔2022-02-15);空单114笔-4.56$,资金费UNKNOWN
EMA_FILTERED_200(27/73) paper_account 240m 51 29.4 +19.81 4.02 2.22 +9.05 +10.77 +15.28
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) default4h 240m 73 31.5 +2.29 5.87 1.12 -4.58 +6.87 -1.69
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) audited4h 240m 14 35.7 +1.50 3.56 1.37 -2.93 +4.44 +0.73 样本不足
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel24 240m 39 35.9 +4.84 2.67 1.50 -1.72 +6.56 +2.27
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel34 240m 33 36.4 +5.11 2.81 1.61 -0.66 +5.77 +2.81
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) exit14 240m 33 42.4 +5.64 3.17 1.71 -0.51 +6.16 +3.54
chatgpt_shadow/candidate_audit(Donchian) channel48 240m 13 38.5 +1.98 3.08 1.56 -2.93 +4.92 +1.21 样本不足

组合过滤:日线唐奇安(20日,k=3,现货日线)持仓时才允许开多

过滤开启时间占比:15m 46.0%,4h 39.6%。G1=只门控入场;G2=门控入场且日线状态转空时下一根离场。

策略 周期 原版 笔数/收益%/回撤%/PF G1 笔数/收益%/回撤%/PF G1 前半$/后半$ G1 成本翻倍% G2 收益% 结论
donchian 15m 31/-0.69/2.25/0.82 10/+0.21/0.73/1.18 +0.34/-0.13 -0.31 +0.21 改善,样本不足
ema 15m 271/-10.07/10.14/0.60 313/-9.85/10.04/0.68 -5.71/-4.14 -10.15 -9.85 改善,仍为负
bollinger 15m 221/-10.01/10.06/0.07 221/-10.05/10.10/0.08 -10.05/+0.00 -10.03 -10.05 ≈不变,仍为负
rsi 15m 171/-10.04/10.18/0.28 236/-9.95/10.05/0.34 -5.62/-4.33 -10.05 -10.02 ≈不变,仍为负
keltner 15m 262/-10.01/10.02/0.48 208/-10.04/10.06/0.39 -10.04/+0.00 -10.03 -10.04 ≈不变,仍为负
pullback 15m 199/-10.02/10.02/0.25 206/-10.07/10.07/0.30 -10.07/+0.00 -10.08 -10.07 ≈不变,仍为负
local_mix 15m 186/-10.04/10.05/0.03 186/-10.09/10.09/0.03 -10.09/+0.00 -10.07 -10.09 ≈不变,仍为负
fast15 15m 255/-10.02/10.10/0.62 243/-7.20/8.24/0.72 -2.16/-5.04 -10.19 -7.20 改善,仍为负
default4h 15m 31/-0.69/2.25/0.82 10/+0.21/0.73/1.18 +0.34/-0.13 -0.31 +0.21 改善,样本不足
audited4h 15m 7/+0.09/1.11/1.10 4/-0.34/0.87/0.47 +0.00/-0.34 -0.51 -0.34 变差,仍为负,样本不足
channel24 15m 12/+1.22/0.72/2.05 5/+0.28/0.65/1.43 +0.00/+0.28 +0.00 +0.28 变差,样本不足
channel34 15m 11/+1.24/0.72/2.08 5/+0.28/0.65/1.43 +0.00/+0.28 +0.00 +0.28 变差,样本不足
exit14 15m 11/+1.14/0.78/1.92 5/+0.22/0.65/1.31 +0.00/+0.22 -0.05 +0.22 变差,样本不足
channel48 15m 7/+0.26/1.12/1.26 4/-0.34/0.88/0.47 +0.00/-0.34 -0.51 -0.34 变差,仍为负,样本不足
donchian 240m 70/+3.84/4.50/1.21 31/+6.60/2.95/2.10 -2.17/+8.77 +4.26 +6.60 改善
ema 240m 144/+3.97/8.59/1.09 78/+4.68/7.60/1.22 +2.74/+1.95 +0.54 +4.68 改善
bollinger 240m 201/-9.90/10.11/0.71 99/-3.64/6.31/0.76 +0.71/-4.35 -8.24 -2.78 改善,仍为负
rsi 240m 138/-4.59/5.59/0.86 22/+0.25/1.68/1.06 +0.49/-0.24 -1.47 -0.97 改善,样本不足
keltner 240m 114/+7.94/3.92/1.37 69/+2.78/3.85/1.22 -0.59/+3.37 -0.86 +2.78 变差
pullback 240m 140/+2.16/7.85/1.07 108/-6.73/9.13/0.69 -5.11/-1.62 -8.87 -6.73 变差,仍为负
local_mix 240m 295/-10.10/10.13/0.59 249/-9.09/10.10/0.57 -9.09/+0.00 -9.63 -9.09 改善,仍为负
paper_account 240m 51/+19.81/4.02/2.22 15/+0.47/3.79/1.10 -1.77/+2.24 -0.26 +0.47 变差,样本不足
default4h 240m 73/+2.29/5.87/1.12 31/+6.60/2.95/2.10 -2.17/+8.77 +4.26 +6.60 改善
audited4h 240m 14/+1.50/3.56/1.37 9/+1.31/2.53/1.64 -1.95/+3.26 +0.77 +1.31 变差,样本不足
channel24 240m 39/+4.84/2.67/1.50 21/+4.47/2.80/1.99 -2.62/+7.09 +2.85 +4.47 变差,样本不足
channel34 240m 33/+5.11/2.81/1.61 20/+3.96/2.80/1.80 -2.62/+6.58 +2.45 +3.96 变差,样本不足
exit14 240m 33/+5.64/3.17/1.71 20/+3.42/2.83/1.68 -2.65/+6.07 +2.18 +3.42 变差,样本不足
channel48 240m 13/+1.98/3.08/1.56 9/+1.31/2.53/1.64 -1.95/+3.26 +0.77 +1.31 变差,样本不足